SpaceX-Tesla Merger Would Create $3.4T Giant Bleeding Money From Day One

Executive Briefing

• Analysts place 52-80% odds on a SpaceX-Tesla merger that would surpass all prior deals in history by value
• Combined entity would post roughly negative $1 billion in annual GAAP earnings based on current financials
• SpaceX's free cash flow deficit hit $14 billion last year, while Tesla faces a $22.5 billion capex commitment through year-end
• Reaching fair value at $1.75 trillion would require $248 billion net income and $1.1 trillion revenue by 2035, exceeding any company today
• Merger logic centers on using SpaceX's inflated IPO shares as currency to prop up Tesla's declining profitability